jamie goode's wine blog: Wine predictions for 2009

Friday, January 02, 2009

Wine predictions for 2009

Some wine predictions for 2009 - the full version on the main site has more in the way of explanation.

  • Itís bad news folks. The real economic pain is yet to come. But you knew that, and itís getting a bit boring talking about it.
  • Selling wine below cost will end: some UK supermarkets have been using wine as a loss-leader, damaging brands in the process, but they will stop.
  • The strength of the Euro will change the face of the UK marketplace.
  • Print magazines will suffer; online wine writing will continue to thrive.
  • Neo-prohibitionism has gathered momentum, and unless challenged will be a major threat to the wine industry.
  • 2009 is South Africaís big opportunity, but will they take the chance?
  • Finding a route to market will remain the major challenge for producers: and solving this should be the key focus of those who want to succeed.
  • Could this be the year of the co-op? Given the right direction and leadership, co-operative wineries could find some marketplace opportunities in 2009.
  • But 2009 will see some real innovation in the wine industry Ė specifically, lower alcohol wines that taste good, and a fully recyclable triple-layer PET bottle and closure option.

I'd also like to refer readers to Doug Wregg's wonderful (and wittier) predictions here


At 2:49 AM, Anonymous Gretchen Roberts said...

Interesting predictions, Jamie. As to #4, how are writers making money online? That is my question for 2009 (as a mostly-print writer who has done quite well in that genre but fears the pie will get much, much smaller this year).

At 9:47 AM, Blogger Douglas Blyde said...

Very interesting, as always. Regarding point four, wasn't 'Decanter' thin this month? I imagine printed wine publications will have to reinvigorate themselves with bracingly fresh content rather than puff themselves choc-full of long lists of tasting notes which include wines permanently 'unavailable in the U.K.'
I hope '09 is good for you, Jamie.

At 5:09 PM, Blogger Michael Olivier's Wine and Food Blog said...

South Africa's great opportunity to do what?

At 1:12 AM, Anonymous Steve Bachmann said...

On finding a route to market for producers, why don't they just focus on larger online retailers who can bypass the distributors/wholesalers? We at Vinfolio import directly into CA from Europe already (even small quantities) and sell nationwide and internationally. I'll market wines which fit our target audience all day along if producers are willing to let me manage my risk by brokering their wine (i.e., marketing wine set aside for us on a pre-arrival basis and then buying what we sell). They can also keep a higher percentage of the end retail price that way.

At 9:21 AM, Anonymous Keith Prothero said...

To sell more wine in the UK presumably Michael with the weakening of the rand.
Also a lot more effort should be made by WOSA and especially individual wineries and their importers,to get the message over that the quality of SA wine has improved markedly in last 10 years----and I am not referring to the rubbish sold in Supermarkets!!

At 10:25 AM, Anonymous Pedro Guimaraes said...

Your predections made me think of my biggest fear in wine business/industry.....the cheap "expensive tasting" sort of wines, usually produced by the big companies. I mean there is no lost secret in it: you just use "suplemments" to get the profile you wish...turning wine into something really not interesting and absolutely lacking any sort of identity!!!!!

Let's hope 2009 will not be another beneficial year for such product...

At 11:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Touching on Gretchen Roberts' comment, online wine writing will find it difficult to thrive if the companies that advertise on wine-related websites start to lose that string of their advertising budget. Which is already happening.

At 10:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Supermarkets will continue with discounting because booze is the prostitute of the food hall and the cheap stuff will still drive footfall.

Value and perceived value will become even more important. Wow, that half price in Tescos really is a good deal, eh!

Sterling can be used for some SA wines (and the Rand's not bad either at the moment) - making it more appealing, as long as the quality keeps up. SA is definitely going to be the land of opportunity to fill out lists - but will punters really want to get an SA house wine in a restaurant?


At 6:22 PM, Anonymous J R W said...

Using wine as a way to intice customers into supermarkets will end? You must be joking! These big boys own the industry and I do not think that they will bend to not selling wine on the cheap to preserve wine brand names.

Infact, I am actually writing now and its 2010 so obviosly your 2009 prediction was wrong which I can confirm to all...


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