jamie goode's wine blog: Predictions for 2008

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Predictions for 2008

Those of you who follow both the blog and the main wineanorak site will see that I've put up a list of wine predictions for 2008 (here).

In bullet form they are:
1. More competitive market
2. Belt tightening by consumers
3. Neoprohibitionism on the move
4. Alternative packaging increasing
5. High alcohol takes a beating
6. No more RP for UK retailers
7. Fewer corks
8. Australia struggles; NZ thrives

I also think we'll see a change of government in the UK, that bird flu will cause a global pandemic (get out your Tamiflu and food supplies), and that Man City will nick a champions league spot. On that latter point, you can see City's win last night here. I reckon they should sign Berbatov, Bentley and Mascherano and then they'll be challenging for the title. [Now I'm verging on silliness, I admit it.] Just got my tickets to see West Ham v City on Saturday in the FA Cup - I'm going with my chum Rob, and we're both taking our kids (he has two girls about the same age as our boys). I've not been to Upton Park before - it should be a good game.

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At 4:40 PM, Anonymous Alex Lake said...

Good predictions!

I'd go along with virtually all of those, although suspect that bird flu and change of government will have to wait a year.

I'm a bit pissed off about the neoprohibitionism, but fear you're not wrong there.

At 9:11 PM, Anonymous Jack at Fork & Bottle said...

3. Neoprohibitionism on the move

Is this just in the UK? I haven't heard anything about this in the US or Canada.

6. No more RP for UK retailers

As in Parker? How can this occur? Now that every Australian wine is 90+ pts...

At 9:57 PM, Anonymous Steve said...

There's a rumor afoot here in not-so-sunny California that, with our state facing the biggest budget deficit in history, Gov. Arnold may be forced to raise taxes. And some political types already are suggesting that alcoholic beverage taxes be raised. We haven't heard this kind of talk since the early 1990s, when the Wine Institute beat it down. But, like Dracula, this vampire refuses to die.

At 10:34 PM, Anonymous Alex Lake said...

I think that in the UK, the Government is becoming increasingly beleaguered to an extent that the spin doctors may suggest that "something must be done" to show that Brown is a man of action. Unfortunately there's not much that can be done to fix the matters of importance, so they'll be casting around for scapegoats that might spark a bit of tabloid support. So naturally one's mind drifts towards something that might "save the life of a child (TM)" or deal with "yob culture". On both these fronts, symbolic moves such as hiking up rates of duty, slashing acceptable blood alcohol levels while driving or suchlike are surefire winners. Who cares whether they'll actually work or not, the Government can't be blamed for doing nothing while the country goes to the dogs...

BTW - I think RP points are here to stay for a little while longer. Mind you, it's annoying when they're really "mere" WA points - which are not worth as many prizes as genuwine RP points.

At 10:53 PM, Blogger Michael Pollard said...

In regard to :-

5. High alcohol takes a beating. I think you will see a drop in the number of wines above 15%, but I seriously doubt that 12-13% will be the target. The here and now drinkers will still prefer those bold, fruity wines - I doubt they care one way or the other about region or variety.

8. Australia struggles; NZ thrives I agree that New Zealand deserves a bigger claim to the world markets. They had big increases in international sales in 2007, and that will continue. Australia may struggle, but it won't be across all sectors. Even though they have had drought, frosts and fires I don't believe that wine production (in general) will drop off the map. Just came back from my annual visit there, including a 1200 K drive through the Riverland and Barossa. The greenest parts of country were the vines, even though the rest looked dry - esp in the Barossa.

At 11:07 PM, Anonymous Stuart P said...

Funny how so many Man City fans were pleasantly surprised about their team's good start and now they've moved a stage further, saying that 4th spot is now likely.

I would be astonished if Man City finished in the top 4, billionaire at the helm or not.

Remember when Norwich topped the top division at Christmas (not that long ago), and look where they finished...

At 8:30 AM, Blogger Chris said...

I saw my best live game at Upton Park - West Ham vs West Brom a few seasons back. West Ham had Defoe, who scored in the first couple of minutes and looked a class apart from every other player. Soon West Ham were 3-0 up and the game looked over. West Brom snatched a goal against the run of play and then right on the stroke of half time Defoe was sent off for an horendous tackle.

West Brom came out early from half time and West Ham looked shell shocked. West Brom went on to win the game by scoring 3 goals in the second half.

Brilliant game.

Anyway, when we left we walked to the DLR (Prince Regent station) instead of queueing for ages at Upton Park tube... might be worth a doing too if you're tubing it there and back.

At 12:16 PM, Blogger Barry said...

Bentley is an excellent player..
Berbatov is probably almost a great one..but a miserable B...
when things are not going well..mind you ..so are Anelka and Henry.
As I said earlier in the season..we really just need a goalscorer who can get us 15 a year..
Our young players will improve..already showing great potential..4th spot...why not 3rd.Chelsea will struggle if they don't buy.

I'm hoping for a decrease in alcohol..I am not an Aussie lover when they are top heavy..they win prizes at tasting because the tasters only try a sip...they should try consuming a bottle..the Rhone and Languedoc show the way when making Syrah.

At 2:49 PM, Blogger billn said...

No more RP? You mean retail price ;-)
Happy new year

At 11:53 PM, Anonymous Stuart P said...

"Why not 3rd"


Man City fans are getting a wee bit too big for their boots methinks...

At 1:29 PM, Anonymous Doug said...

Hi Jamie,

Perhaps we should foreshadow here the most important and surefire prediction for 2008: the inevitability of the biggest price hikes for inexpensive wines in the last ten years. I've heard that the basic cost of the wine being sold to Asda (as their house French wine) has increased by 70% (!) Other co-ops and cantinas are reporting their intention to raise prices by anything between 5% and 30%. The cost of bottles (because of the virtual monopoly) and other dry goods, such as cork, has also gone up. Higher oil prices have a knock-on cost implications for transport, and the pound is languishing against the euro. I'm fascinated to see how the supermarkets cope with this multiple whammy.

You could look at this another way and say that now, more than ever, it makes absolute sense to trade up a few pounds.


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